Feb 20, 2023
BTC Volatility Returns as Bulls Struggle to Break Resistance
Bitcoin (BTC) enters the last week of February in a volatile state after failing to break a crucial area of resistance. Despite a swift rally last week that saw the largest cryptocurrency tap six-month highs, the good times were not to continue and February’s progress has been much slower and hard won than January’s 40% gains. With a crucial monthly close due and potential external price triggers in the form of minutes from the United States Federal Reserve, the crypto space is abuzz with speculation.
The Bitcoin network fundamentals are due to leap to yet another all-time high, with miners in full recovery mode. Crypto traders are wary of the rally’s strength, with Venturefounder warning that external factors such as “macro weakness” could have an immediate bearish impact on crypto markets. The upcoming week holds fewer potential macro triggers than the last, with a sprinkling of U.S. data releases, including personal spending in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE). However, the event on most crypto pundits’ radar is the release of the minutes from February’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at the Fed.
The 200-week moving average (WMA) has acted as resistance since the middle of 2022 and reclaiming the level would mark a conspicuous achievement. However, all attempts have been met with flat rejection so far. Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, summarised the situation, noting that “if Bitcoin manages to break above the 200-week MA cloud, which is becoming increasingly likely, we’re going to see a lot more TradFi coverage of crypto again”.
The next automated readjustment will see difficulty adding an estimated 10% to its current tally, sending difficulty to new all-time highs. Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode bears this out, with miners beginning to retain more BTC than they sell on rolling monthly timeframes. Raw data from MiningPoolStats meanwhile shows Bitcoin network hash rate also preserving its upward trend, remaining at over 300 exahashes per second (EH/s).
The latest findings from research firm Santiment suggest that crypto market sentiment becomes too greedy around those multimonth highs. The ever-popular Crypto Fear & Greed Index meanwhile shows “greed” as the overriding sentiment flavor across crypto this week, with a reading of 62/100 marking new highs since the November 2021 push to $69,000 on BTC/USD.
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