Feb 25, 2023
Bitcoin Reaches Pivotal Turning Point: Will Bull Market Continue?
The recent Bitcoin (BTC) price rally from $16,500 to $25,000 has been attributed to a short squeeze in the futures market and macroeconomic improvements. While the price has increased, data suggests that many buyers (including whales) were left on the sidelines. To understand the current price dynamic relative to the 2019 bull run, let’s look at the top five indicators.
Bitcoin’s price has surpassed the 200-day moving average (MA) at $19,600. This metric has acted as a bull-bear pivot line in the past, with breakouts above it being bullish and vice versa. Traders are also likely paying attention to the 200-period weekly moving average at $25,100. Bitcoin price had never dropped below the 200-weekly MA until November 2022 and reclaiming this level could encourage technical buyers to join the bandwagon.
Twitter trader, Immortal, found the market is only at the “halfway point” considering the duration of the current rally compared to the one in 2019. The 2019 rally lasted 193 days from bottom to top, while only 92 days have passed since the bottom on Nov. 9, 2023. Immortal goes on to say that if the 2019 timeline fractal holds true in 2023, BTC/USD could surge as high as $46,000 by March.
The Bitcoin stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) oscillator gauges the market’s buying power. Low readings on the SSR oscillator indicate higher purchasing power of stablecoins. Conversely, a spike in the metric indicates overbought conditions. Bitcoin’s price surge in February 2023 saw the SSR oscillator spike toward levels not seen since 2019 and 2021. The indicator suggests that the positive trend might end soon.
One of the biggest concerns of the current surge is the absence of whale buying. Contrary to 2019, when the number and holdings of BTC addresses with more than 1,000 BTC increased as the price surged from the bottom, the whales have sold in the present rally.
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicator also shows that the bear trend has likely reversed. The indicator turned bullish when BTC broke out above $20,800 in January 2023. The metric retested the pivotal support level with Bitcoin’s price at $21,800, making it a crucial support level for a sustained uptrend.
The price has moved above the average buying levels of both short and long-term holders, which is another signal of a potential trend reversal. This could be a sign that the market has reached a crucial turning point as the on-chain oscillators return to equilibrium.
A weekly close above $25,100 could encourage derivatives and technical traders to buy into the current rally. However, there are some warning signs that the market might be reaching overheated conditions and a quick correction toward lower support levels cannot be ruled out.
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